BoA non-farm payroll preview, looking for +200K & jobless rate of 3 4%

non farm payroll

Higher employment usually leads to higher interest rates because of central banks’ monetary policies aimed at balancing inflation with growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures labor market activity, working conditions, price changes, and productivity in the U.S. economy to support public and private decision making. The NFP is a part of the monthly Employment Situation Report that estimates the number of jobs gained (excluding farm workers) in the U.S. in the previous month. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. One of the most important monthly economic data points in a trader’s diary is the release of the U.S.

Additional information on the size of the CES sample, estimate revisions, seasonal adjustment factors, and other details are available here. That’s why you should always pay attention to the complete report and read through all of its details before placing a trade based on the NFP. There are several other key pieces of data involved in the non-farms release, including the unemployment rate, detail on sectors, average hourly earnings and revisions of previous releases. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar.

Tag – nfp

The pairs that are most affected by the NFP report are pairs that include the US dollar as either the base currency or the counter currency. This includes EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY, to name a few. Various analysts release predictions for NFP figures in advance of the actual release, causing a great deal of speculation in the lead up to each report. For the rules and examples below, a 15-minute chart will be used, although the same rules apply to a five-minute chart.

After the Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell singled out the upcoming jobs data to justify further hikes. The strong economy added 253,000 jobs and sent the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%. The 5.0% to 5.25% Fed Funds rate will hold for longer than investors like. Another important data point is the unemployment rate, which is the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking work.

EUR/CAD drops sharply to near 1.4300 despite investors anticipating an unchanged BoC policy

It is possible to wait for wide rate swings to subside when traders can capitalize on the real market move after the early speculators have taken profits or losses. The NFP report is typically released on the first Friday of each month, providing the total monthly increase or decrease in paid U.S. workers across most businesses. Increasing numbers may show economic expansion but may also give investors reason to be concerned about inflation and decreasing numbers suggest a broader economic concern.

  • Non-farm payrolls are a monthly statistic representing how many people are employed in the US, in manufacturing, construction and goods companies.
  • In the example above, we can see how EURUSD reacted to the NFPs in June 2016.
  • Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors.
  • Instead, the GBP/USD exchange rate rallies as soon as the announcement comes out, and the pound initially moves sharply higher against the dollar.
  • A better-than-expected NFP number may be beneficial for the Canadian dollar as well, as the Canadian economy is strongly tied to the US economy.

The NFP measures the number of jobs created or lost in the U.S. economy over the prior month. If the labor market is growing, that means more people are making money, and the more spending there will be. NFP is part of a monthly report representing how many people are employed in the US, in manufacturing, construction, and goods companies. It’s what is known as the pullback strategy, in which you wait for a currency pair to retrace before entering a trade. It’s important for all traders to understand that even in the pre-pandemic era, NFP data tended to fluctuate wildly.

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